TCSS Security Commentaries #038
“Understanding Taiwan’s pursuit of sustainability as a matter of security and prioritizing it can help Taiwan become more resilient in the Cross-Strait conflict.”
Georg Tannen, Intern, TCSS
Taiwan’s roadmap for 2050 net zero goal is on track, stated Taiwan’s Minister of Environment Shieu Fuh-sheng at the 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP28). This statement refers to Taiwanese achievement of becoming the 18th country worldwide to legally commit to climate neutrality by passing the Climate Change Response Act in early 2023. The act is a revised version of the Greenhouse Gas Management Act of 2015, which references the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and has set the goal of reducing Taiwan’s greenhouse gas emissions to no more than 50% of 2005 levels by 2050. Since the UN resolution 2758 in 1971, Taiwan has been officially excluded from the UN and its specialized agencies, including the UNFCCC and its first Conference of the Parties (COP) in 1995. However, Taiwanese officials have participated in several COPs through Taiwanese NGOs, as they have been granted observer status by the UNFCCC. Therefore, this year, the Minister for the Environment was able to participate in COP28.
An analysis of Taiwan’s voluntary commitment to the UN climate regime as a non-member, based on governmental documents between 2006-2020, describes the governmental actions “a strategy to expand its international space and to protect its export-oriented economy”. Recent events and new policies in Taiwan’s climate action add weight to this analysis.
For instance, Taiwan, received international recognition in the context of COP28, with four diplomatic allies – Saint Lucia and Saint Kitts, Nevis, Tuvalu and Eswatini – and the Formosa Club praising Taiwan’s commitment as a global partner in the climate crisis and therefore advocating for Taiwan’s inclusion as an observer to the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement and related mechanisms. To maintain effective trade relationships with key partners such as the EU, which is Taiwan’s 4th largest export partner as of 2022, and to comply with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, the Taiwanese government has developed its own carbon trading system, the Taiwan Carbon Solution Exchange, modeled after the EU’s system.
In addition to this attributed climate diplomacy strategy, it is important to consider the aspects of energy and water (in)security in relation to climate change. These factors should not be neglected, especially given the ongoing dynamics in the Taiwan Strait.
According to Taiwan’s Bureau of Energy, 97.27% of the island’s energy supply was imported in 2022, all from fossil fuels. Domestic energy production consists of 94.2% renewable energy, which only accounts for 2.6% of the total energy mix. Due to its heavy maritime reliance on energy supply, Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, considers Taiwan to be “one of the world’s most energy-insecure economies”. Given China’s increasing capacity to exploit this vulnerability through PLA operations, the energy experts recommend that “Taiwan reduce its energy security vulnerability by developing indigenous renewable energy resources”. Other experts have concluded that Taiwan’s energy vulnerability is an “Achilles heel” that gives China leverage in Cross-Strait relations.
The insecurity that comes with Taiwan’s energy supply as well as water insecurity might have a negative effective on the so-called “silicon shield”, which is described by President Tsai as following: “Our semiconductor industry is especially significant: a “silicon shield” that allows Taiwan to protect itself and others from aggressive attempts by authoritarian regimes to disrupt global supply chains.” At the moment the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), energy consumption is 6% of island’s energy consumption. An Greenpeace analysis projected an increase of TSMCs electricity consumption by up to 267% by 2030, which is equivalent to around a quarter of Taiwan’s population. The water supply of the island heavily relies on seasonal typhoon rains, accounting for 70% of the total rainfall. In 2020-2021, Taiwan experienced one of the worst drought periods in its history as a result of the lack of rainy typhoons. The water reservoirs in Taiwan fell below 5% of their capacity, and water-intensive industries like as semiconductor and rice agriculture were severely affected by the shortage. Climate change will result in fewer typhoon-brought rainfall in Taiwan, leading to increased water insecurity.
In summary, Taiwan’s pursuit of sustainability is a matter of security. This includes gaining international recognition, promoting its export-oriented economy, and reducing its vulnerability to maritime energy imports as well as water insecurity. Taiwan’s climate strategy and transition to sustainability are thus directly linked to Taiwan’s overall security in the Cross-Strait conflict.
Georg Tannen is an undergraduate student at the University of Münster, Germany where he majors in political science and philosophy.
Taiwan Center for Security Studies 