TCSS Security Commentaries #038
“As the dust settles on the monumental COP28 summit in Dubai, it is essential to dissect the successes and shortcomings of this historic gathering for the global climate action..”
Harun Talha Ayanoglu, PhD Candidate and Research Assistant at TCSS.
The UNEP Warning and Climate Reality:
Before delving into the specifics of COP28, it is a must to face the stark reality presented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). According to UNEP’s report released prior to the COP28 summit, countries’ overall performance in fulfilling the emissions-cutting pledges is far from sufficient to curb the impending climate catastrophe. Another concerning data reinforcing UNEP’s conclusion on emissions-cutting pledges was the Global Stocktake which is an integral and indivisible part of the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 intending to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. To Global Stocktake, countries are falling short of their emissions-cutting commitments. These two disconcerting revelation reports framed the severity of the current climate situation and underlined the dire need for collective actions to halt the current direction toward 2.9°C warming by the end of the century.
COP28 – A Watershed Moment:
The COP28 Summit in Dubai was held in such a gloomy atmosphere and has succeeded in being a historic moment in many respects. With over 90.000 participants, including a record number of climate groups, and even over a thousand lobbyists from the fossil fuel industry, COP28 stands as the largest-ever assembly of the COPs. Similarly, the final agreement is undeniably a historic leap forward, as it marked the most substantial progress on climate action since the Paris Agreement. Parties in the COP28 agreed on reinforcing the 1.5°C goal and embracing the necessity for a 43% emissions cut by 2030 and a remarkable 60% reduction by 2035 relative to 2019 levels. Nevertheless, this came with its share of challenges and compromises.
Deciphering the Agreement:
The key importance of the COP28 was not only the record number of participants but also its final agreement. Despite its continuing highlight on the 1.5°C goal, challenges emerged during negotiations. The proposed statement that curbing global emissions should peak by 2025 faced objections from China and some others, leading to its exclusion. In addition, very little progress was made on climate adaptation and finance, although the final agreement acknowledged the need for trillions of US dollars.
In a historic departure from past summits, COP28 marked the first time that a final agreement explicitly mentioned fossil fuels as the root cause of the climate crisis. This acknowledgment, after 30 years of climate negotiations, is a significant paradigm shift and a testament to the evolving discourse on climate responsibility. Amidst the challenges and heated debates, COP28 achieved conspicuous successes. With the support of over 120 countries, the final agreement called for a tripling of renewable energy and a doubling of energy efficiency by 2030. Moreover, global leaders, cognizant of the soaring climate impacts in the near future, launched a loss and damage fund that has already attracted over 700 million US dollars.
Controversies and Criticism Surrounding COP28:
Nevertheless, challenges and critics of the COP28 summit persisted. In addition to aforementioned positive developments in climate action, climate groups, experts, and some politicians criticized the final agreement. Initially, the stronger terms such as “phase out” or “phase down” of fossil fuels were backed by 130 of 198 countries and were used in the draft text. However, the unanimity of parties was blocked by Saudi Arabia and few other petro-states, as well as some middle-income developing nations. Instead of phase out or phase down of fossil fuels, the final agreement used “transition away from fossil fuels in energy system in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with science”.
The absence of stronger terms was not the only controversy surrounding the capability of COP28. In an online event hosted by former Irish president Mary Robinson, the COP President, Sultan Al Jaber, also the chief executive of UAE’s state oil company ADNOC, stirred the debate on the COP28 Presidency. He stated that “there is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuels is what is going to achieve 1.5C…show me the roadmap for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development unless you want to take the world back into caves”. While Al Jaber later clarified his stance, concerns lingered about the COP’s efficacy in driving substantial change in climate action.
The Urgency of Climate Realities and A Call for Bold Action
Without any doubt, the climate crisis is no longer tomorrow’s problem, and it was further underlined by alarming global climatic events in 2023. The average temperature on Earth briefly exceeded 2°C above the pre-industrial average on November 17, making 2023 the hottest year on record. Hundreds of thousands of people were affected by floods, storms, heatwaves, and wildfires. Moreover, 2 billion people are currently facing drought across the world.
As is reflected in the outcomes of COP28, countries have to take bold and decisive steps in tackling the climate crisis. Despite the historic milestones in COP28, the reluctance of major emitters and petro-states to acknowledge more solid measures is the weakest link of our climate action chain.
The Real Impact of COP Summits:
In conclusion, COP summits are undoubtedly crucial milestones, but also they face the challenge of translating rhetoric into tangible action. Besides the historic acknowledgments and commitments on fossil fuels, in the absence of robust international cooperation, COP summits highlight the gap between intention and implementation. COP28 serves as both evidence of progress and a reminder of the daunting battle the world faces shortly.
Harun Talha Ayanoglu, PhD Candidate and Research Assistant at TCSS.
Taiwan Center for Security Studies 