TCSS Security Commentaries #041

Lola Le Feur, research intern TCSS

On May 6th and 7th, Chinese President Xi Jinping has for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic been seen in France. Even though this visit was expected notably to tackle important security and economic matters, it has been largely criticized by the French public opinion. Indeed, the latter is worried by the apparent blindness of French President Macron vis-a-vis the multiple recent human rights violations conducted by his Chinese counterpart. Therefore, what are the main takeaways of this diplomatic meeting?

Xi Jinping’s visit to Paris is actually the first step of a diplomatic European journey. Choosing France as the beginning was first and foremost a strategic decision, witness the date of May 6th, which also celebrated the 60-year anniversary of the relations between the two countries. Since the official recognition of the Middle Kingdom by former French President De Gaulle in 1964, France and China have shared a tumultuous relationship, characterized by contradictory interests essential for both countries. France was indeed one of the first main European power to recognize the People’s Republic of China’s existence and sovereignty. Sixty years later, the situation has dramatically evolved: whereas France had a GDP 4 to 6 times higher than China’s, the latter now dwarfs the French GDP by almost four times, and has become a major actor on the international scene. This meeting was a high risk for Macron. Although China remains a decisive economic partner, the international community was putting pressure on the French President to tackle security and diplomatic topics, notably regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, many agreements have been ratified between China and Russia, for instance on agriculture, artificial intelligence, and also stability in the Middle-East, a region where China is still dependent upon the Pax Americana to enforce its interests.

This 3-day visit in France has eventually reaffirmed a recent trend, i.e., that France matters for China as long as it plays a role in defending Chinese interests. Such a position historically dates back to the recognition sixty years ago, quickly followed by the settlement of big Chinese companies in France. These enjoy today an unfair competition, which undermines the French firms trying to find their way in the restricted Chinese market. As a result, it is nowadays tricky not to find some “Made in China” everywhere around us.

China has so skilfully handled its rise towards economic and political hegemony that its sole participation in international events is considered a success. Paris’ COP 21 makes a compelling case, as the engagement of China was even more appreciated than the general agreements. Therefore,  Xi Jinping obviously tried to make the most of his visit in France, by attempting to infiltrate even more the European market and giving back to France the position it believes to be hers, i.e. an access point between China and the European Union/the United States. Macron tried to push-back these attempts, notably concerning the energetic agreements on the Chinese electric cars’ arrival on the European market, inviting Ursula von der Leyer, President of the European Commission, to carry more weight.

As a result, Macron succeeded in stabilizing the French position and withdrawing from the image of Chinese interests’ defender. However, Xi Jinping is perfectly aware of this, as his next European stops proved it. Serbia and Hungary were two choices strategically important and revealing. Contrary to the hostility of French firms towards Chinese criteria (of accepting Chinese unfair rules for French companies in China for example and to make China benefit more from this agreement than the other part of the contract), Hungary displayed a more open attitude, largely welcoming main Chinese companies on its territory in conformity to their conditions, therefore avoiding imports’ controls. Hungary has proved its faithfulness to China, by usually blocking some measures of the European Union if they are threatening Chinese interests. Thus, Xi Jinping visit was not stopped by French pushback to be under Chinese influence. Where Macron said no, Xi Jinping found new allies that can be precious to him in times where more and more European measures and economic sanctions are voted against China. Having an ally within the European Union is a non-negligeable asset, that European countries should be careful about.

At the end of the day, the result of this visit is rather ambivalent, notably due to an unsatisfied Chinese President, disappointed by France’s refusal to agree to all its terms and conditions.. In Europe in the same way as in Asia, China disturbs the international order. It also revealed European weaknesses, right before the European elections. Such division between the East and the West of Europe is becoming more and more visible and frightens European scholars, afraid that those countries might turn to China in a near future.

Lola Le Feur is a third-year undergraduate student from the University of Sciences Po Paris in France, currently doing a one-year exchange at NCCU.