Blue and Green
People often consider politics to exist along a right-left spectrum, with the right being more conservative and the left more progressive. However, this is not exactly the case in Taiwan. In Taiwan, the central question in politics lies in Taiwan’s relationship to China, in a historical, political, and cultural context.
Taiwanese politics exists along a “blue-green” spectrum, with the Blue camp identifying more with China and the Green camp identifying more with Taiwan as a separate historical entity. Ethnicity, history, and politics have all shaped each respective worldview.
Those with a Blue mindset consider Taiwan to be a province of China, though not the People’s Republic of China – they also view the Communist Beijing government as illegitimate. They would favor a future in which China is a democratic country, and that future China includes the region of Taiwan. They would likely cite Taiwan’s history of Chinese colonization starting in roughly the 1500s, and the fact that virtually all modern Taiwanese are descendants of people who immigrated from the mainland at some point in the past.
Those with a Green mindset consider Taiwan to be a completely separate historical entity, with their own unique culture, citing Taiwan’s democratic principles, Taiwanese Hokkien language, and Taiwan’s history as a Japanese colony. They favor Taiwanese independence, though they do not necessarily want to pursue that at the present due to the PRC threat.
Taiwan’s Two (Three?) Parties
Since 1996, Taiwan has operated as a democratic-republic dominated by two traditionally powerful parties (the KMT and DPP), alongside smaller parties. The Democratic Progressive Party are often described as “Green,” identifying themselves very clearly with Taiwan and generally rejecting any affiliation with China. The DPP is a pan-Green party, with some factions firmly advocating independence and some taking a much more even handed approach. President Lai previously described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan’s independence” and was at one point a part of the New Tide Faction, the most “Deep Green” of Taiwan’s green factions. DPP supporters tend to be younger, and are mostly located in the southern plains of the island where Taiwanese is spoken by most of the population.
The Kuomintang (KMT) are part of the “pan-blue” coalition, and therefore identify more with the historical lineage of China. The KMT is slightly more conservative and membership tends to skew on the older side. Members of the military, government employees, and small businesses also tend to support the KMT. KMT support is strongest in the Taipei metropolitan area the central mountain regions, and the eastern coast, as well as Kinmen and Matsu islands. Historically, the KMT also enjoys overwhelming support from Taiwan’s indigenous communities, though the DPP has been trying to court this group as well.
However, there has been a bit of a shakeup in Taiwan’s political environment, with the introduction of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). The TPP is a relatively new party, but they have already had a major impact on politics in Taiwan. The party is centered around its chairman, Ko Wen-je, a surgeon and former mayor of Taipei. The TPP has been very successful attracting young, highly educated voters who are dissatisfied with the political establishment and value pragmatic governance over issues of identity and Cross-Strait Relations. The TPP represents a growing dissatisfaction with the establishment of Taiwanese politics, with TPP supporters viewing both the KMT and DPP as corrupt and more interested in ideological combat than with solving everyday problems facing many Taiwanese. They are much more pragmatic in their mindset, and are worried more about issues like housing prices or low wages than they are about issues in the Taiwan Strait. The TPP has also sought to break the Blue-Green spectrum.
History
The KMT was founded in 1912 from a merger of several other anti-monarchist political societies that existed around the founding of the Republic of China, but the modern organization didn’t come into being until 1920 when Sun Yat-sen resurrected the organization in an effort to fight the Beiyang Government led by Yuan Shikai. Eventually, the KMT led by Chiang Kai-Shek, would come to dominate the Republic of China government. However, the KMT’s roots in Taiwan only go back to 1945. The KMT took control of Taiwan immediately following the Japanese surrender in WW2, which immediately created friction between the Taiwanese, the indigenous groups, and the mainlanders. Two events from the early KMT period shaped Taiwan’s modern political environment in profound ways. First, the 228 Incident was the first major instance of widespread violence between mainlanders and Taiwanese. In response to this violence, the KMT government instituted martial law over the island and began a campaign to root out suspected communists, called the “White Terror.” They pursued a policy of “sinicization” which aimed to make the Taiwanese, who were by then under Japanese rule for some 50 years, more Chinese. This campaign included banning the use of Taiwanese and Japanese, in favor of Mandarin. At the same time, the communist victory in the mainland had forced all remaining KMT supporters to flee with the majority of them, as well as the ROC government relocating to Taiwan.
The KMT ruled mostly unquestioned for the next 30 years or so, with only occasional uprisings from Taiwanese nationalists. But, things were changing by the 1980s. The death of Chiang Kai-Shek and the rule of Chiang Ching-Kuo meant that the KMT had lost some of its power, factions within the government argued over the prospect of reconquest of the mainland, and more and more democracy seemed like an inevitability. In the Martial Law period, opposition political parties were made illegal, and this rule was strictly enforced until the late 1980s, when the Tangwai movement came to prominence in Taiwan. Not officially a “party,” it was nonetheless a means for opposition to organize against the KMT. In 1987, the DPP was founded, and although this was still technically illegal, the KMT authorities allowed the DPP to exist, and then in 1988 they lifted martial law, fully legalizing the DPP and other opposition parties.
Since Taiwan held its first democratic elections in 1996, the island has grown into a stable democracy. But there is still deep division between the Blues and Greens. The DPP has pushed for a “de-sinicization” campaign, advocating for the usage of Taiwanese and Hakka languages, renaming institutions to remove any reference to “China,” and removing statues honoring KMT figures like Chiang Kai-Shek. At the same time, the previously strong ethnic correlation with political identity has diminished somewhat, with more and more descendants of mainlanders mixing with the Taiwanese population and embracing a more Green worldview, and similarly more and more Taiwanese supporting a blue worldview. In general however, Taiwanese society seems to be moving more green, as more and more Taiwanese, and especially the youth, identify solely with Taiwan, rather than China.
Taiwan Today
Taiwan held a presidential election in January 2024, which pitted DPP candidate William Lai, VP for President Tsai Ing-wen, against KMT candidate Hou you-yi, former mayor of Taoyuan, and TPP candidate Ko Wen-je, former mayor of Taipei. Lai won the presidency, receiving about 40% of the votes, while Hou and Ko split the remainder. The DPP performed even worse in the legislature, losing the majority. However, the KMT also failed to secure a majority, which has made the TPP a kingmaker. The TPP can use its 8 seats in the LY to pick and choose specific initiatives and make coalitions in order to raise their political profile for the next election in 2026.
Taiwan Center for Security Studies 