TCSS Security Commentaries #041

Dongsu Lee, research intern TCSS

According to ICUV, a semi-governmental civic group in Ukraine that visited Korea on May 22, Ukrainian intelligence authorities reported that North Korea exported a total of 60 short-range ballistic missiles ‘KN-23’, also known as Hwasong 11GA, and approximately 2.3 million shells to Russia. The delegation also claimed that North Korea’s weapons support had changed the course of the war in Ukraine.

North Korean artillery shells and missiles found in Ukraine

Of course, North Korea has denied the claim that it traded arms with Russia. However, some substantial evidence refuting this has been disclosed to the media. First, there are the remains of the missile that fell on Kharkiv, Russia, on January 2nd. According to Conflict Armament Research (CAR), the Korean letter ‘ㅈ’ was found in the wreckage of this missile, and analysis shows that the missile is presumed to be a KN-23 or KN-24. Additionally, Korean alphabet (‘순타지-2신’) was written on a shell fragment discovered in Kharkiv, Ukraine on February 15. And in October last year, U.S. authorities released three satellite photos as evidence that more than 1,000 containers had been moved from North Korea’s Rajin Port to the Ukraine border area through Russia’s Vladivostok.

North Korea, the hidden victor of the Ukraine War

So why did Russia conduct an arms deal with North Korea? The reason is that, amid international sanctions against Russia, North Korea was a country that could supply artillery shells quickly and in large quantities. The current war in Ukraine is closer to an artillery duel than to mobile or hybrid warfare. The most important thing is the supply of artillery shells. As the Russia’s military consumption exceeded its supply of artillery shells, the need for imports increased, and there were not many options amid Western sanctions against Russia. At this time, North Korea, which had stockpiled millions of artillery shells in preparation for war with South Korea and could sell them cheaply, was the best option.

North Korea is likely to benefit economically and technologically by taking advantage of this situation. First, in terms of economic benefits, North Korea can not only boost its arms exports through the sale and production of artillery shells, but also receive food and energy, which are the basis of its economy, from Russia. DPRK can also acquire advanced Russian technologies. During his visit to Russia last year, Kim Jong-un visited the base of Russia’s Pacific Fleet, a fighter jet production plant and the Vostochny Cosmodrome. North Korea is likely to use the supply of artillery shells as leverage to request technical support from Russia in areas of interest such as reconnaissance satellites, nuclear submarines and fighter jets.

Anti-American military coalition and China taking advantage

Russia itself violated sanctions against North Korea by purchasing North Korean weapons, and even virtually disbanded the UN panel that was monitoring sanctions violations against North Korea earlier this year. It is not only North Korea that is approaching Russia militarily, which is becoming isolated due to the conflict with the West. Like North Korea, Iran also supplies weapons to Russia, and there are suspicions that Russia is helping Iran with weapons development research. North Korea and Iran, which have already cooperated in the nuclear and missile fields, are taking advantage of Russia, which is at odds with the United States over the Ukraine war, to form a strong anti-American military alliance of Russia-Iran-North Korea.

China does not provide lethal military support to Russia. This is because economic exchanges with the Western world, including the United States, are important for China. Diplomatically, it basically advocates neutrality and mediation in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Through this ‘neutrality’, China continued economic exchanges not only with the West but also with Russia, importing cheap Russian resources and dominating the Russian market. In addition, the country continues to indirectly support Russia by exporting dual-use goods that can be used for both military and civilian purposes to Russia. In the end, all China has to do is claim neutrality, reap economic benefits, and watch as the power of the United States and Russia continues to be suffered by supplying shells through war.

Implications for the Taiwan Strait

Due to the Ukraine War, there is a subtle tension on the Korean Peninsula as South Korea becomes an ‘arsenal of democracy’ and North Korea becomes an ‘arsenal of authoritarianism.’ As China still maintains the facade of neutrality, there is no direct impact on the Taiwan Strait. However, what is certain is that the environment has become more favorable for China to establish a confrontational military stance with the United States. For the United States, which is concerned about two wars, including the war in Ukraine as well as the war in Israel and Hamas, the military coalition of Russia-Iran-North Korea is a threat. Although China is currently maintaining military neutrality, if it uses the Russia-Iran-North Korea bloc militarily to confront the United States, military tension in the Taiwan Strait will rapidly increase.

Dongsu Lee is a Graduate student of political science and international relations at the University of Kyunghee, Korea.