TCSS Security Commentaries #040 

Harun Talha Ayanoglu, Ph.D Candidate at National Chengchi University

273 million Indonesians hail Prabowo Subianto as their new president. It was a big victory for him after two decades of electoral defeats. It is worth noting that his victory is largely attributed to the backing of immensely popular President Jokowi. As Mr. Prabowo clearly stated that he will follow his predecessor’s legacy in modernization and economic development, many perceive Prabowo’s presidency as the Jokowi’s third term.

A former special forces general and Suharto’s son-in-law, Prabowo Subianto is perhaps one of the most controversial political figures in Indonesia due to his record in human rights abuses and brutal practices against political opponents under the Suharto regime. However, amidst his political victory, a critical issue looms large on the country’s horizon, its role in global action.

Despite being one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters, Indonesia often receive scant attention when it comes to global climate change. Indonesia’s emissions and pollution primarily arise from deforestation, peatland clearance, and heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Although former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has taken commendable steps in climate and environmental actions, Indonesia fells short in its climate targets, earning a “Critically Insufficient” rating from the Climate Action Tracker. Nevertheless, Indonesia’s failure in climate action has global implications. In other words, concerning climate change, what happens in Indonesia does not stay in Indonesia.

Before the election, presidential campaigns and debates underscored a notable absence of concrete and well-rounded plans to cope with intensifying climate change, although each candidates promised to take solid steps. In his program, Prabowo identified climate change as one of the strategic challenges that Indonesia will face in the coming 5 years, emphasizing its indirect impacts on food security. However, Mr. Prabowo’s broader plan to ensure self-sufficiency in food, energy, and water raises concerns, reminiscent of the challenges faced by the ill-fated Mega Rice Project in the mid-90s, which converted 2.7 million hectares for food production.

Indonesia’s significance in global action against climate change cannot be overrated, but it can be investigated in four main bullet points. First and foremost, Indonesia is the world’s largest coal exporter, and coal is the largest component of the country’s electricity generation. According to the International Energy Agency, Indonesia’s dependency on coal in electricity generation is 61%. Although Indonesia is part of a global agreement targeting to phase out some of its coal-burning power plants, the country has been expanding its coal-based power generation capacity recently, leading to a 21% increase in CO2 emissions in 2022. Current models on population and economic growth, indicate that Indonesia will continue to increase its power generation capacity and coal will likely remain the largest primary energy source.

Secondly, nickel mining and processing shape Indonesia’s role in climate change. During Jokowi’s presidency, Indonesia intended to be the production hub for EV batteries, since the country has vast resources of nickel ore, which is an essential component of batteries. To ensure that, Indonesia imposed export bans on nickel ore, so international companies were encouraged to invest in Indonesia for mining and processing. On the other hand, nickel mining and processing skyrocketed Indonesia’s energy demand, and coal was ready to help. China, one of the first investors in the nickel industry in Indonesia, financed the building of a new fleet of coal-burning power plants, and consequently, Indonesia’s CO2 emissions increased abnormally in 2022. Besides the emissions, soaring nickel mining has led to environmental degradation in areas like Maluku and Sulawesi.

Thirdly, unsustainable agricultural practices, particularly in biofuel production, are hanging over Indonesia’s head, jeopardizing recent efforts to slow down deforestation. The FAO’s report demonstrated that Indonesia is the largest CO2 emitter, surpassing India, China, Brazil, and the US, in land use and agriculture emissions. The main culprit here is biofuel production and related risks. Increasing biofuel capacity almost always means deforestation in Indonesia. During his election campaign, Mr. Prabowo proposed to create a palm oil ministry and promised to expand biofuel capacity by increasing palm oil production and other crops. Although Indonesia has been performing relatively better lately slowing down deforestation, Prabowo’s plan for self-sufficiency in energy and food may undermine and reverse all this progress.

Last but not least, inadequate public transportation contributes to Indonesia’s notorious emissions record. As the country developed, urbanization and urban mobility increased. However, except Jakarta (to an extent) major cities offer excessively limited public transportation options. This naturally curbs Indonesia’s effort to meet emissions targets. 90% of the total energy used in the transportation sector is consumed by road transport, making it the third-largest contributor to Indonesia’s total emissions.

In conclusion, Indonesia’s status as one of the top global emitters underscores its critical role in addressing climate change on a global scale. The heavy reliance on coal for energy generation to meet the soaring demand driven by nickel ore processing remains a concerning issue, as it exacerbates carbon emissions and hampers efforts to transition to green energy. By extension, the adverse effects of Indonesia’s deforestation and peatland clearance extend well beyond its borders, with neighboring countries such as Singapore and Malaysia consistently experiencing air pollution as a result. This cross-border impact presents the interconnectedness of environmental issues and signifies Indonesia’s pivotal position in global climate action.

Given its significance, presidential elections in Indonesia carry profound implications not only for Indonesians but also for regional and international communities. The direction set by Indonesia’s leadership in addressing climate challenges can have far-reaching consequences for global efforts to mitigate climate change and safeguard the world for future generations.

However, the populist political stance of President Prabowo, coupled with his ambitious plans to accelerate the palm oil and nickel industries, raises doubts about the country’s commitment to solid environmental action. This is a vital challenge for Indonesia as it navigates its role in global climate action and underscores the importance of prioritizing sustainability and environmental protection in national policies and decision-making processes.

Harun Talha Ayanoglu is a Ph.D. candidate at National Chengchi University and research assistant at the Taiwan Center for Security Studies.