TCSS Security Commentaries #040 

Dongsu Lee, research intern at TCSS

On April 10, the 22nd general election was held in Korea to elect members of the National Assembly. Out of a total of 300 seats in the National Assembly, the ruling party, the People Power Party, won only 108 seats, while the main opposition party, the Minjoo Party of Korea, won 175 seats. This is the first time since Korea’s new constitution was enacted in 1987 that the opposition party has won a majority of seats in the National Assembly throughout the five-year term of the Korean president.

Increased need for cooperation with opposition parties

What is the cause of the ruling party’s defeat in this general election? First, it is possible that traditional ruling party’s supporters, such as doctors, soldiers, and scientists, have left. There were major and small conflicts with each group due to issues such as increasing the number of medical school students, procedural transparency in the investigation of soldiers who died in military service in 2023, and cuts in science-related R&D budgets. Next, the ruling party united opposition supporters by criticizing the “authoritarian government” and the moral and legal issues related to the first lady. Lastly, there is dissatisfaction with the rapid rise in living prices such as fruits and vegetables.

As a result, with the ruling party losing in this general election, the Korean government needed more cooperation with the opposition party to implement policies. In the early days after taking office, President Yoon Seok-yeol was able to push forward his policies strongly by exercising his veto power in the National Assembly, despite the opposition party was the majority in the National Assembly. However, exercising such a veto will become somewhat more difficult after this general election. The first reason is that public opinion about the ‘authoritarian government’ must be managed. Secondly, even if only 8 votes from the ruling party members are against the president, the presidential veto can be rejected and the National Assembly can re-introduce the law. (Currently, out of the total 300 members of the Korean National Assembly, there are 192 members of the pan-opposition party.)

Unwavering foreign and security policy

However, despite these difficulties in running the government, the Yoon administration’s foreign policy of ‘expanding cooperation with the United States and Japan to suppress North Korea’ is likely to be maintained. First of all, immediately after his crushing defeat in the general election, President Yoon announced a complete personnel change in the high-level presidential secretaries, and the diplomatic and security lines were the only ones that were not replaced. Next, in the realm of diplomacy, the President of Korea can exercise virtually full authority regardless of the composition of the National Assembly. Lastly, since conservative supporters view diplomacy as the area in which they excel, foreign policy will not change easily.

Likewise, President Yoon Seok-yeol’s cross-strait policy is also unlikely to change significantly. He basically values exchanges with liberal democratic countries and views the Indo-Pacific region including Taiwan Strait as a strategic region. However, the opposition party values trade with China and is relatively unwilling to intervene in Taiwan issues. Therefore, the Yoon Seok-yeol government may accept some of the opposition party’s arguments and pursue a policy that emphasizes economic exchange with China. In fact, the current Minister of Foreign Affairs has extensive experience in the trade field and has emphasized that China is an important trading partner of Korea. Accordingly, there is a possibility that the Korean government will refrain from making cross-strait relations remarks that provoke China.

Divided world and divided domestic politics

Taiwan’s next President Lai Ching-te and South Korea’s President Yoon Seok-yeol have several things in common. First, they were both elected by a very small margin. Next, both of them are in a same situation where the opposition party is the majority in the legislative institute. Looking at Taiwan’s election results early this year, the KMT became the largest opposition party in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan. It appears that the Taiwanese people were somewhat dissatisfied with the internal affairs of DPP, even though they supported Lai Ching-te’s diplomatic and security pledges. Therefore, the DPP’s Lai Ching-te will have no choice but to cooperate with the opposition party to implement domestic policies, including economic policies, while inheriting Tsai Ing-wen’s cross-strait policy.

Currently, the world is in the process of being divided around two countries, the United States and China. And this international political division also contributes to the domestic political division of Korea and Taiwan. Public opinion is largely divided regarding the foreign and security policies of the two countries, and the executive and legislative branches of the two countries are also becoming divided. In this situation, the ability of the president to cooperate will become increasingly important. They need to coordinate the ruling party and the opposition party, the government and the legislature, and the government and domestic public opinion. Of course it is not easy. Nevertheless, while maintaining clear foreign and security policies that served as the basis for their support, leaders must also listen to opposing opinions and be willing to actively accept them if necessary for the national interest.

Dongsu Lee is a Graduate student of political science and international relations at the University of Kyunghee, Korea.