TCSS Security Commentaries #039

Dongsu Lee, Research intern at TCSS.

According to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea launched several short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea on March 18. This is the second ballistic missile launch in this year, following the hypersonic medium-to-long-range ballistic missile launched on January 14.

Intensifying military and diplomatic conflict in the Korean Peninsula

So why did North Korea resume missile provocations after a few months of relative calm? First, this is a response to the ROK-US joint exercise ‘Freedom Shield’ (FS) held from March 3 to 14. Next, North Korea had previously been exercising restraint in consideration of China’s two sessions of parliament and Russia’s presidential election. Lastly, it was a provocation aimed squarely at Korea, not Japan or the United States. This is even more certain considering the ballistic missile’s flight range of about 300 km and General Secretary Kim Jong-un’s remark during the super-large MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) exercise the next day that “the enemy’s capital city is fully prepared to collapse.”

Recently, tensions between North and South Korea have increased not only in terms of a ramp-up in military exercises, but also diplomatically. At the end of 2023, North Korea declared South Korea, which it claimed was not a country, to be a ‘hostile country’. Any mention of peaceful unification has disappeared from North Korean propaganda media. On the other hand, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol said in his March 1st Independence Movement Day speech that the North Korean regime is committing tyranny and human rights abuses and that unification is about expanding freedom and human rights. Additionally, the Korean government plans to present a new unification vision that incorporates the values of liberal democracy.

Signs of U.S. Forces Korea’s intervention in Taiwan Strait

Under the current situation, Korea and the United States are gradually becoming closer. In the Freedom Shield exercise this March, the United States further strengthened its determination to defend South Korea and suppress North Korea’s nuclear missiles. In addition, at this the 3rd Summit for Democracy, Korea and the United States reaffirmed their consensus on the existence of a liberal democratic system. The most recent example of the close relationship between Korea and the United States is the adoption of the “Washington Declaration,” the first document of agreement between the leaders of South Korea and the United States on extended deterrence, in April last year, and the establishment of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), a high-level standing consultative body between Korea and the United States regarding North Korea’s nuclear threat.

However, in this situation where Korea is closely aligned with the United States, the US military in Korea emphasizes its role in the Taiwan Strait. During this Freedom Shield exercise, the commander of the U.S. Forces Korea Special Operations Command emphasized the importance of cooperation with other partners in the region, saying that threats may come from anywhere. In fact, both current and former commanders of U.S. forces in Korea have hinted at intervention in the Taiwan Strait. In line with this, President Yoon launched the ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy of Freedom, Peace, and Prosperity’ last year and also stated that the Taiwan issue is an international issue.

Considering carefully between keeping China in check and North Korea issue

For the current Korean government, the Taiwan issue is also a problem of the Korean Peninsula. If China forcibly annexes Taiwan, Korea, which relies on maritime transportation for most of its trade, would suffer great damage. Additionally, the expansion of the influence of the Chinese Communist Party, which has a different political system from Korea’s, will undermine Korea’s liberal democracy. However, the opposition leader says that there is no need for Korea to intervene in cross-Strait issues. The argument is that all that needs to be done is to gain economic benefits from both China and Taiwan without intervening in sensitive diplomatic issues. They also argue that the Korean Peninsula should no longer become a proxy battlefield for powerful countries like the Korean War.

Japan also has similar concerns to Korea, since it is adjacent to not only China, but also North Korea and even Russia. In this situation, if China invades Taiwan, there will be pressure from the US on Japan to intervene in the Taiwan Strait. However, Japan has recently been making a series of moves to reduce the threat from North Korea. Japan is trying to establish diplomatic relations with North Korea by taking advantage of the current situation in which North Korea is becoming more diplomatically isolated due to the sudden establishment of diplomatic relations between South Korea and Cuba. Japan could ease its relations with North Korea and instead focus more on deterring China, preparing for the possibility of being involved in the Taiwan Strait whether Japan likes it or not.

Conclusion

South Koreans do not want to repeat the painful history of Korean War. That may be the reason why the stationing of US troops in Korea was allowed to counter North Korea, which had received support from China and the Soviet Union. Perhaps, if the US military in Korea continues to mention intervention in the Taiwan issue, Korean’s anxiety could increase. However, the Korean Peninsula issue and the Taiwan issue are already intertwined. As long as the United States guarantees that South Korea is safe from North Korean nuclear weapons, we will have no choice but to intervene in the Taiwan issue in some form.

Dongsu Lee, Research intern at TCSS.