TCSS Security Commentaries #041

By Raja Babu & Utkarsh Verma

India and China, the world’s two most populous nations, have a long and often contentious history. Their relationship, which is characterized by both cooperation and conflict, has important implications for regional and global geopolitics. China’s factor on the election process is evident, since India is currently holding general elections. This article examines the various ways China has become a source of concern and debate in the Indian electoral arena.

To understand China’s current influence on Indian elections, a brief historical context is required. Since the Sino-Indian War in 1962, bilateral relations have fluctuated between periods of relative calm and high tensions. Relations have deteriorated in recent years, particularly since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, which resulted in significant casualties for both sides. This incident has fueled nationalist sentiments in India and has become a flashpoint in the political narrative.

Just before the election, Microsoft warned that China is preparing to disrupt the upcoming elections in India, the United States, and South Korea with artificial intelligence-generated content. The warning comes after China conducted a trial run during Taiwan’s presidential election, using AI to influence the outcome.

On May 4, 2024, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar underlined that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration will never compromise on national security, saying that India has “very strongly countered” China by deploying thousands of troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Speaking at an event in Bhubaneshwar, Jaishankar emphasized the tensions with China, pointing out that over the past four years, China has sent a large number of troops into the Ladakh region in an effort to exert pressure on India.

“We have very strongly countered it. Thousands of Indian Army troops are currently deployed in the LAC alongside China. “We are very clear; we are there, strong, and deployed,” he stated. Jaishankar praised the Indian armed forces, stating that any action taken is determined by the circumstances, and that the armed forces are the best judges of necessary responses. “The Modi administration will never compromise when it comes to national security,” he underlined, referring to pressure from China or cross-border terrorism from Pakistan.

Jaishankar also clarified to his Chinese counterpart that normal relations cannot be maintained unless a border solution is found. “It is not like you can fight here and also do business with us—that is not possible,” he emphasized. In response to a question concerning the two nations’ vital relationship in general, he emphasized that China has broken agreements made since the war of 1962.

On May 18, 2024, Jaishankar spoke about India-China relations, sharing information about the current situation along the LAC. He noted that patrolling patterns have been disrupted, and the priority is to resolve these issues. In an exclusive interview with the Hindustan Times, he responded to opposition claims that China is building a model village near Arunachal Pradesh and encroaching on territory in east Ladakh, explaining that these areas were captured by China in the late 1950s.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told Nikkei’s Future of Asia forum in a video message on Friday that the supply chain challenge, over-concentration caused by globalization, and the use of economic coercion by states have put a premium on resilience and redundancy—an apparent reference to China’s economic moves. “As a result, the era of AI, EVs, green and clean technologies has brought equal parts hope and anxiety. “National security has become critical to many economic transactions as both market shares and data harnessing are leveraged,” he stated.

Chinese Reactions

Xu Feihong recently became China’s Ambassador, coinciding with the Indian general elections. This has been portrayed in Chinese media as “an opportunity” for the country to strengthen ties with Beijing. State-owned English news portals, such as the Global Times, have taken a hawkish stance towards India and its elections. The narrative being crafted by the Chinese media implies that the BJP, led by Modi, is deliberately inflaming anti-Chinese sentiments to garner support.

A number of editorial and opinion pieces in the Global Times have blamed government rhetoric intended to win votes for the worsening India-China relations. The prime minister is widely believed to be using his strong stance against China to improve his electoral prospects. It has criticized Indian media for allegedly aligning their narrative with the Modi administration’s China policy, resulting in a negative perception of the country.

In response to Jaishankar’s remarks that “national security has become crucial to many economic transactions,” Global Times stated that, while the “national security filter” rhetoric may be framed as a way to support Indian products and the “Make in India” initiative, it is ultimately a protectionist call motivated by nationalist sentiments.  It emphasizes the Indian government’s determination to protect domestic industries, but it also raises concerns about the potential negative effects on India’s economic interests, such as limiting market options and reducing trade efficiency.

Conclusion

China’s influence over the 2024 Indian general elections is multifaceted, encompassing political, economic, and security aspects.  The complex relationship between the two countries continues to influence electoral strategies and voter preferences in India. As political parties navigate these dynamics, the debate over China will remain central, reflecting broader concerns about national sovereignty, economic independence, and regional stability. Understanding this influence is critical to understanding the changing geopolitical landscape of South Asia and the world.

Raja Babu is a PhD Student in the Department of East Asian Studies at the University of Delhi

Utkarsh Verma is a PhD Candidate in the International Doctoral Program in Asia-Pacific Studies, National Chengchi University