March 15th 2024

The 2024 Tabletop Exercise (TTX) took place on March 14-15, jointly hosted by Taiwan Center for Security Studies (TCSS), Asia-Pacific Policy Research Association(APPRA), Advanced Stratagem Asia Pacific(ASAP), and Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University (IIR NCCU). Set in the year 2032, TTX simulated eight security scenarios covering topics such as energy security, regional turbulence, community and submarine cable vulnerability, global conflicts, economic and chip security, etc. In addition, participants conducted analysis on situations involving military deterrence, social resilience, and national security strategy. In total, over 170 participants gathered at the 2024 TTX to debate the multi-dimensional challenges facing Taiwan’s national security today and beyond.

The 2024 TTX focused on the CCP’s use of gray zone tactics against Taiwan and simulated crisis management strategies in areas including diplomacy, economy, communication, and war casualties among others. TTX moderator, Dr. Fu-Kuo Liu, Director of TCSS, emphasized that the importance of the exercise lay not within simulating the outcomes of war in the Taiwan Strait, but rather in seeking strategies to avert and manage risk.

In contrast to the 2023 TTX held last July, the 2024 exercise shifted more of its focus to the CCP’s gray zone strategy of non-military action. In light of the recent Kinmen Islands incident, a primary focus of the discussion was whether or not such an operation should be considered a military act. Director Liu noted that the variability of Taiwan’s domestic and foreign affairs in the next eight years added an extra layer of difficulty to the simulation, especially with regard to the influence of potential Cross-Strait military conflicts, tensions in the South China Sea, and the 2024 presidential elections in Taiwan and the US.

Additionally, the on-site observation team present at this year’s exercise discussed the potential impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Taiwan. For example, if Russia won the war or US and European support for Ukraine began to wane, how might the CCP interpret such a situation? What impact would this have on Cross-Strait relations?

The 2024 TTX was not only a comprehensive simulation of Taiwan’s current security strategy, but also an attempt to draft a national security strategy as reference for Taiwan’s newly elected government. Throughout the course of the event, the latest medical and protective equipment for combat casualties were displayed in order to facilitate communication between participants and manufacturers.

Lastly, Director Liu reiterated that the goal of the exercise was to guide and promote integration and coordination among various government departments and to provide Taiwan with a complete national security strategic framework. The event concluded successfully under the guidance of the TTX planner, Admiral Richard Chen. This achievement has not only attracted the attention of domestic and foreign experts and scholars, but also established an important platform for perspective exchanges.