Regional Security Tabletop Exercise: Deterring An Inevitable Armed Conflict in the Taiwan Strait

OCTOBER 30, 2023-Taipei

Against the backdrop of escalating cross-strait tensions, military simulations on the Taiwan Strait crisis are becoming increasingly crucial. The National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, in collaboration with the Asia-Pacific Policy Research Association and the Taiwan Center for Security Studies, jointly organized a regional security tabletop exercise (TTX) event on July 5th to 6th. The Team brought together a range of stakeholders to offer their assessments on strategic decision making, preparedness, and the potential outcomes of a Taiwan Strait contingency and present the first publicly available war-game simulation.

The Tabletop Exercise sought to identify pre-emptive solutions to reduce the risk of, and damage inflicted by, the PRC’s strategic maneuvers. It focused on providing a forward-thinking long-term tracking solutions and practical recommendations to policy makers. Unlike traditional military exercises, the purpose of this simulation activity is not to find the so-called ‘best solution’ during warfare. Instead, through practical group activities and predefined scenarios, it aims to guide participants in practicing and brainstorming solutions amid different challenges. At the same time, it helps them understand the potential costs those subsequent actions may have to bear.

The exercise scenario involved a series of hypothetical events in relevant sectors, such as, politics, diplomacy, economy, energy, industry, healthcare, communication, society and military – interact, and considers how these sectors will be impacted.

Insights made in the 2023 TTX report “Deterring an inevitable armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait” were taken from the analysis of qualitative data collected at the event. The TTX team representatives included delegates from ASEAN, Australia, India, Japan, PRC, ROC, Republic of Korea (ROK), and the US. Key scenarios of the tabletop exercise included:

  1. Blockade and NEO;
  2. Air Attack;
  3. Air, Sea and Ground incursion;
  4. Stalemate Contingencies;
  5. Supply Chain and Market;
  6. Energy and Power Grid;
  7. Medical Preparedness;
  8. Cyber Warfare – Submarine cable

The 2023 TTX event attracted approximately 130 international experts, government officials, and scholars. The participants engaged in active exchanges and posed numerous questions. The conference not only extensively discussed the current international situation in Northeast Asia but also analyzed the positions, perspectives, constraints, and future directions for Taiwan’s defense among various countries. In the future, the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University will continue to organize events related to international security, cross-strait relations, and other current issues.